Capitulation

Unfortunately there is nothing else to call it.

It's being said a million times in a million ways - and hopefully the media and the Democratic leadership will wake up to the fact that it's not just the "loony left" who want to see Congress stand up to this Administration and insist that we begin exiting from their insane and failed military boondoggle in Iraq.

An accidental similarity in title of one of my posts of a year ago with a recent opinion piece by Mark Buchanan published by the New York Times, has led me to that article which seeks to explain the disconnect between the media's "conventional wisdom" about the feelings of the American people and the breadth and depth of what they really feel. It's an interesting read, but with the Times odd policy of making opinion available only by subscription, I can point you instead to this reproduction of it.

I try to regularly watch Washington Week in Review, largely because it keeps me in touch with the DC pundits' "conventional wisdoms", but I frequently bristle at what they choose to cover or ignore, and at the characterizations of perfectly reasonable beliefs as being "fringe". Dan Balz is particularly nauseating - but I digress. Of course if you pay attention to the sponsors of this "public television" offering, one quickly sees big oil, big agribusiness, and military contractors. Who are we kidding? Brancaccio's NOW and anything Bill Moyers does in contrast is funded solely by foundations or socially conscious businesses.

So I sit here heartsick and dismayed that the Democratic leadership was so gutless that it could not come back with a bill that mandated a sane exit as a contingency to funding. It's even more sickening that so many Democrats voted for this capitulation - both in the House and the Senate.

Certainly I called both my Senators (Murray and Cantwell) to express my dismay, and my Congressman (Inslee) to applaud his courage.

Still, I think it is important not to come unhinged. By all means, let us point out that people are dying due to these decisions, but let us be aware that this is but one vote, and our continued engagement can still play a role in subsequent votes. I am not abandoning the Democrats over this, nor will I drop out. The voice of dissent is growing. To use it effectively we must continue to be involved - not drop out in disgust.

The Democratic leadership has sadly ceded the Republican talking point that a vote against an unreasonable funding resolution is a vote against the troops - we must not cede the talking point that only the leftwing fringe would do otherwise. That is provably not the case, but the more of us who come unhinged, the easier it will be for the opposition to paint us as such.

Choose hope - stay resolute - adopt a calm anger

We are here to stay.

A Time for Partisanship

We should yearn for dialogue, not stridency; for calmly deliberated, rational solutions in public policy, not do-nothing bickering between shrill ideologues which leaves us with the status quo.

Frustration in America is palpable across the political spectrum. People with very different ideas about what direction is best are rightly annoyed that partisan divisiveness has engendered a climate of distrust.

Appealing to that frustration can result in some pretty compelling political advertising by candidates from any party who claim to represent a sensible deliberate approach to governance while attacking partisanship as a divisive source of political gridlock.

In my state of Washington, Republican candidate for Senate, Mike McGavick, is airing such a set of commercials. But I know that McGavick supports policies which run counter to my idea of good governance. (And his implication that incumbent Senator Cantwell is an exemplar of partisan divisiveness is dishonest. Cantwell's biggest problem may well come from the pacifist sensibilities of the liberal leaning Puget Sound electorate, many of whom were upset with the extent to which she supported Bush's Iraq policy.) More importantly, independents and moderate Republicans need to understand that in order for real dialogue to be restored, one-party control of government must be squashed.

That's right -- partisanship, specifically Democratic partisanship, is desperately needed right now to bring some balance to government so that dialogue can return.

Jack Whelan at the After the Future, summed it up brilliantly in a pair of posts (1) & (2) a month ago. Please read them both!

. . . moderates play right into the hands of the far right which hopes that no one mounts a serious opposition to their agenda. The longer the hard right can keep the moderates diverted in "reasonable" conversation, the more time it gives it to consolidate power. That's why moderates need throw their support to partisan Democrats, whether they like them or not. There is no other way to create a potent counterbalance to the power-grabbing agenda of the right. The right works hard to present a reasonable facade, but feels no need to negotiate or compromise unless it is forced to do so, and at the moment there is no political power potent enough to force such negotiations.

So my point is that moderates, if they really understood how serious the threat we are facing, would have no choice but to become partisans in opposing the current power grab by the far right. There is no way to communicate the seriousness of this threat moderately. And since moderates are inoculated against immoderate language, they cannot hear the alarm because it is alarmist. As such they are vulnerable to manipulation by the far right who achieve their ends precisely by playing moderates for the moderates that they are.

. . . There are no moderates in one-party systems; there are only collaborators. ... I consider myself a centrist, but I know many readers consider me alarmist. ... And I am particularly alarmed that moderates are still sitting on the fence because they think that's the grownup, reasonable thing to do. On the contrary, it's time to get alarmed, very alarmed.

Someone reading only this, or for that matter only Jack's articles might well complain that we have not cited the evidence that requires such an alarm. But I have to wonder what box such a person must have been living in for the last 5 years.

Tax Policy & Partisanship

First, hats off to the lone three Republicans in the House, Sherwood Boehlert (NY-23), Fred Upton (MI-6), and Jim Leach (IA-1) for bucking their party and voting against yesterday's Republican tax package HR 4297 which unfortunately passed by a 234-197 margin. The Senate version has yet to be voted on, but may face some problems with some Republican moderates already expressing doubt or opposition. This bill basically extends the Republican practice of giving marginally higher tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans in the name of stimulating investment. In fact it keeps the tax code more complicated for those who have modest capital gains for little if any advantage, and irresponsibly starves our treasury in a time which should call for national sacrifice, especially on the part of those who can best afford it.

Treasury Secretary John Snow gives the usual talking points in favor of stimulating the economy (by giving tax breaks to the wealthy) and is quoted in the Washington Post story:

"Lower tax rates on savings and investment have benefited millions of Americans of all income levels either directly -- through lower taxes on investment returns -- or indirectly through new and better jobs and greater economic security for families," Snow said.

which concludes:

The Tax Policy Center, run jointly by the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute, has concluded that the bottom 80 percent of households would receive 15.8 percent of the House tax cuts' benefit. The top 20 percent would receive 84.2 percent of the benefit. Households earning more than $1 million a year would get 40 percent of the tax cuts, or an average reduction of nearly $51,000.

Numbers such as these have given moderate Republicans pause in the Senate. Sen. Olympia J. Snowe (R-Maine) last month single-handedly blocked the Senate Finance Committee from even considering an extension of the dividend and capital gains cuts. Instead, the committee drafted and the Senate approved a five-year, $60 billion tax cut largely aimed at restoring the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast and slowing the expansion of the alternative minimum tax.

It is striking to me how unified the Republicans in the House typically are when it comes to tax policy, hence I think it's worth calling out the three exceptions here. Leach is a representative whose integrity and independence I've noted before. Certainly as a percentage, though, the 54 member Republican caucus of the Senate shows considerably more independence from orthodoxy than the 231 member Republican caucus of the House. This is yet another reason that I feel the switch to a Democratically controlled House is more important than a switch in the Senate. The switch in the Senate is going to happen anyway in 2008 if not next year, the switch in the House really needs to happen in 2006.

The Whole Shebang

There are a lot of great sites which gather information on Congressional races around the country, but the best ones split the information on many pages, often separated by state. Here I roll them all into one list.

The National Committee for an Effective Congress [Democratic] (for instance Washington State) is one great source for information on House races. The DCCC has opened up their tracking site for tonight's races.

The non-partisan Politics 1 (for example New York State) was my primary source for this list, and gives more information about each Candidate with links to websites where available, and lists more 3rd party candidates as well. I've provided a link to each state's page by clicking on the state name.

CNN is probably the best place to look at these returns as they come in, and those links are provided by clicking on coverage.

Third parties are included only where one of the major parties did not field a candidate. (I guessed at the most viable candidate.) The incumbent's party is listed in the 2nd column, and the incumbent party's candidate is the left of the two names at the end. Party affiliation is given in parentheses after the candidates name only if it is not D or R. A # before the incumbent party's candidate indicates that the actual incumbent is not running, either because of retirement, or because they are running for the Senate. Louisiana's asterisks are due to their unusual system of allowing multiple candidates of the same party to run followed by run-off elections, and I'm not sure I picked the favorite. Texas's asterisks are cases where two incumbents are running against each other due to redistricting.

Values in the W-02 column, courtesy Gender Gap, show the percentage of votes that the incumbent party received in 2002. Status is an indication for any races considered competitive, the current likelihood of victory. T is Toss-Up, 1 is close lean, 2 favored, 3 strongly favored. Those without an indication presumably would go easily to the incumbent party. These values rely heavily on the statuses indicated at ActBlue, with a few adjustments based on more (Democratically) optimistic prognostications at MyDD.

Here you go:

Dist     Inc  W-02   Status Candidate    Challenger

    Alabama results: Alabama - California

AL-01     R    61           Bonner       Belk

AL-02     R    69           Everett      James

AL-03     R    50      R2   Rogers       Fuller

AL-04     R    87      R3   Aderholt     Cole

AL-05     D    73           Cramer       Wallace

AL-06     R    90           Bachus

AL-07     D    93      D3   Davis        Cameron

    Alaska 

AK-01     R    75           Young        Higgins

    Arizona 

AZ-01     R    49      T    Renzi        Babbitt

AZ-02     R    59      R3   Franks       Camacho

AZ-03     R    67           Shadegg      Yannone (L)

AZ-04     D    67           Pastor       Karg

AZ-05     R    60      R3   Hayworth     Rogers

AZ-06     R    65           Flake        Stritar (L)

AZ-07     D    58           Grijalva     Sweeney

AZ-08     R    63           Kolbe        Bacal

    Arkansas

AR-01     D    65           Berry        Humphrey

AR-02     D    99      D3   Snyder       Parks

AR-03     R    99      R3   Boozman      Judy

AR-04     D    60           Ross

    California 

CA-01     D    64           Thompson     Wiesner

CA-02     R    66           Herger       Johnson

CA-03     R    62      R3   # Lungren    Castillo

CA-04     R    65           Doolittle    Winters

CA-05     D    72           Matsui       Dugas

CA-06     D    67           Woolsey      Erikson

CA-07     D    71           Miller       Hargrave

CA-08     D    80           Pelosi       DePalma

CA-09     D    82           Lee          Bermudez

CA-10     D    76           Tauscher     Ketelson

CA-11     R    60      R3   Pombo        McNerney

CA-12     D    68      D3   Lantos       Garza

CA-13     D    71           Stark        Bruno

CA-14     D    68           Eshoo        Haugen

CA-15     D    66      D3   Honda        Chukwu

CA-16     D    67      D3   Lofgren      McNea

CA-17     D    68           Farr         Risley

CA-18     D    52           Cardoza      Pringle

CA-19     R    67           Radanovich   Bufford

CA-20     D    64      D2   # Costa      Ashburn

CA-21     R    70           Nunes        Davis

CA-22     R    73           Thomas

CA-23     D    59           Capps        Regan

CA-24     R    65      R3   Gallegly     Wagner

CA-25     R    65           McKeon       Willoughby

CA-26     R    64      R3   Dreier       Matthews

CA-27     D    62           Sherman      Levy

CA-28     D    71           Berman       Hernandez

CA-29     D    63           Schiff       Scolinos

CA-30     D    70           Waxman       Elizalde

CA-31     D    81           Becerra      Vega

CA-32     D    69           Solis        Faegre (L)

CA-33     D    83           Watson       Weber (L)

CA-34     D    74           Allard       Miller

CA-35     D    78           Waters       Moen

CA-36     D    61           Harman       Whitehead

CA-37     D    73          Millender-McD. Van

CA-38     D    71           Napolitano

CA-39     D    55           Sanchez      Escobar

CA-40     R    67           Royce        Williams

CA-41     R    67           Lewis        Mottahedeh (L)

CA-42     R    68           Miller       Myers

CA-43     D    67           Baca         Laning

CA-44     R    63           Calvert      Vandenberg

CA-45     R    65           Bono         Meyer

CA-46     R    62      R3   Rohrabacher  Brandt

CA-47     D    61           Sanchez      Coronado

CA-48     R    68           Cox          Graham

CA-49     R    74      R3   Issa         Byron

CA-50     R    64      R3   Cunningham   Busby

CA-51     D    58           Filner       Giorgino

CA-52     R    70      R3   Hunter       Keliher

CA-53     D    63      D3   Davis        Hunzeker

    Colorado results: Colorado - Georgia

CO-01     D    67           DeGette      Chicas

CO-02     D    60           Udall        Hackman

CO-03     R    66      T    # Walcher    Salazar

CO-04     R    55      R3   Musgrave     Matsunaka

CO-05     R    71           Hefley       Hardee

CO-06     R    68      R3   Tancredo     Conti

CO-07     R    47      R1   Beauprez     Thomas

    Connecticut 

CT-01     D    67      D3   Larson       Halstead

CT-02     R    54      R1   Simmons      Sullivan

CT-03     D    66      D3   DeLauro      Elser

CT-04     R    64      R1   Shays        Farrell

CT-05     R    54           Johnson      Gerratana

    Delaware 

DE-01     R    72           Castle       Donnelly

    Florida 

FL-01     R    75           Miller       Coutu

FL-02     D    67      D2   Boyd         Kilmer

FL-03     D    59           Brown        Brown (I)

FL-04     R   100           Crenshaw     Grayson (I)

FL-05     R    48      R3   Brown-Waite  Whittel

FL-06     R    65      R3   Stearns      Bruderly

FL-07     R    60           Mica

FL-08     R    65      R3   Keller       Murray

FL-09     R    72           Bilirakis    Pasayan (I)

FL-10     R   100           Young        Derry

FL-11     D   100           Davis        Johnson (L)

FL-12     R   100      R3   Putnam       Hagenmaier

FL-13     R    55      R2   Harris       Schneider

FL-14     R   100           # Mack       Neeld

FL-15     R    63           Weldon       Pristoop

FL-16     R    79      R3   Foley        Fisher

FL-17     D   100           Meek         Musa (SW)

FL-18     R    69      R3   Ros-Lehtinen Sheldon

FL-19     D    72           Wexler

FL-20     D   100           # Schultz    Hostetter

FL-21     R   100           Diaz-Balart  Gonzalez (L)

FL-22     R    60           Shaw         Rorapaugh

FL-23     D    78           Hastings

FL-24     R    62           Feeney

FL-25     R    65           Diaz-Balart

    Georgia 

GA-01     R    72           Kingston

GA-02     D   100           Bishop       Eversman

GA-03     D    51           Marshall     Clay

GA-04     D    77      D3   # McKinney   Davis

GA-05     D   100           Lewis

GA-06     R    80           # Price      Pelphrey (wi)

GA-07     R    79           Linder

GA-08     R    78      R3  # Westmoreland Delamar

GA-09     R    73      R3   Norwood      Ellis

GA-10     R   100           Deal

GA-11     R    52      R2   Gingrey      Crawford

GA-12     R    55      T    Burns        Barrow

GA-13     D    60           Scott

    Hawaii results: Hawaii - Louisiana

HI-01     D    69           Abercrombie  Tanonaka

HI-02     D    SE*          Case         Gabbard

    Idaho 

ID-01     R    59           Otter        Preston

ID-02     R    68           Simpson      Whitworth

    Illinois 

IL-01     D    81           Rush         Wardingley

IL-02     D    82      D3   Jackson      Sailor (L)

IL-03     D   100           # D Lipinski Chlada

IL-04     D    80           Gutierrez    Cisneros

IL-05     D    67           Emanuel      Best

IL-06     R    65      R3   Hyde         Cegelis

IL-07     D    83           Davis        Davis-Fairman

IL-08     R    57      R1   Crane        Bean

IL-09     D    70           Schakowsky   Eckhardt

IL-10     R    69      R3   Kirk         Goodman

IL-11     R    65      R3   Weller       Renner

IL-12     D    69           Costello     Zweigart

IL-13     R    70           Biggert      Andersen

IL-14     R    74      R3   Hastert      Zamora

IL-15     R    65      R3   Johnson      Gill

IL-16     R    71           Manzullo     Kutsch

IL-17     D    62           Evans        Zinga

IL-18     R   100           LaHood       Waterworth

IL-19     R    55      R3   Shimkus      Bagwell

    Indiana 

IN-01     D    67           Visclosky    Leyva

IN-02     R    50      R2   Chocola      Donnelly

IN-03     R    63           Souder       Parra

IN-04     R    71      R3   Buyer        Sanders

IN-05     R    72           Burton       Carr

IN-06     R    64      R3   Pence        Fox

IN-07     D    53      D3   Carson       Horning

IN-08     R    51      R1   Hostettler   Jennings

IN-09     D    51      D1   Hill         Sodrel

    Iowa 

IA-01     R    57      R2   Nussle       Gluba

IA-02     R    52      R3   Leach        Franker

IA-03     D    53      D2   Boswell      Thompson

IA-04     R    55      R3   Latham       Johnson

IA-05     R    62      R3   King         Schulte

    Kansas 

KS-01     R    91           Moran        Warner (L)

KS-02     R    60      R3   Ryun         Boyda

KS-03     D    50      D1   Moore        Kobach

KS-04     R    61           Tiahrt       Kinard

    Kentucky 

KY-01     R    65           Whitfield    Cartwright

KY-02     R    70           Lewis        Smith

KY-03     R    52      R1   Northup      Miller

KY-04     D    51      T    # Clooney    Davis

KY-05     R    78           Rogers

KY-06     D    SE*     D2   Chandler     Buford

    Louisiana 

LA-01     R    81           # Jindal*    Armstrong*

LA-02     D    64           Jefferson    Schwertz

LA-03     R    87      T    # Romero*    Baldone*

LA-04     R    72           McCrery

LA-05     R    50      R2   Alexander*   Blakes

LA-06     R    84           Baker        Craig*

LA-07     D    87      T    # Mount*     Thibodaux*

    Maine results: Maine - Missouri

ME-01     D    64      D3   Allen        Summers

ME-02     D    52      D2   Michaud      Hamel

    Maryland 

MD-01     R    77           Gilchrest    Alexakis

MD-02     D    55      D3  Ruppersberger Brooks

MD-03     D    66           Cardin       Duckworth

MD-04     D    79           Wynn         McKinnis

MD-05     D    70           Hoyer        Jewitt

MD-06     R    66           Bartlett     Bosley

MD-07     D    74           Cummings     Salazar

MD-08     D    52           Hollen       Floyd

    Massachusetts 

MA-01     D    68           Olver        Adam

MA-02     D   100           Neal

MA-03     D   100           McGovern     Crews

MA-04     D   100           Frank        Morse

MA-05     D    60           Meehan       Tierney

MA-06     D    68           Tierney      O'Malley

MA-07     D   100           Markey       Chase

MA-08     D   100           Capuano

MA-09     D   100           Lynch

MA-10     D    69           Delahunt     Jones

    Michigan 

MI-01     D    68           Stupak       Hooper

MI-02     R    70           Hoekstra     Kotos

MI-03     R    70           Ehlers       Hickey

MI-04     R    68      R3   Camp         Huckleberry

MI-05     D    92           Kildee       Kirkwood

MI-06     R    69           Upton        Elliott

MI-07     R    60      R3   # Schwarz    Renier

MI-08     R    68      R3   Rogers       Alexander

MI-09     R    58           Knollenberg  Reifman

MI-10     R    63           Miller       Casey

MI-11     R    57           McCotter     Truran

MI-12     D    68           Levin        Shaffer

MI-13     D    92           Kilpatrick   Cassell

MI-14     D    83           Conyers      Pedraza

MI-15     D    72           Dingell      Reamer

    Minnesota 

MN-01     R    62           Gutknecht    Pomeroy

MN-02     R    53      R2   Kline        Daly

MN-03     R    72      R2   Ramstad      Watts

MN-04     D    62           McCollum     Bataglia

MN-05     D    67           Sabo         Mathias

MN-06     R    57      R1   Kennedy      Wetterling

MN-07     D    65           Peterson     Sturrock

MN-08     D    69           Oberstar     Groettum

    Mississippi 

MS-01     R    71           Wicker       Washer (Ref)

MS-02     D    54      D3   Thompson     LeSueur

MS-03     R    64           Pickering    Magee (Ref)

MS-04     D    75      D3   Taylor       Lott

    Missouri 

MO-01     D    70           Clay         Farr

MO-02     R    67           Akin         Weber

MO-03     D    59      D2   # Carnahan   Federer

MO-04     D    67           Skelton      Noland

MO-05     D    66      D2   # Cleaver    Patterson

MO-06     R    63      R2   Graves       Broomfield

MO-07     R    75      R3   Blunt        Newberry

MO-08     R    72           Emerson      Henderson

MO-09     R    68      R3   Hulshof      Jacobsen

    Montana results: Montana - New York

MT-01     R    65      R3   Rehberg      Velazquez

    Nebraska 

NE-01     R    85      R2  # Fortenberry Connealy

NE-02     R    63      R3   Terry        Thompson

NE-03     R    93           Osborne      Anderson

    Nevada 

NV-01     D    54      D3   Berkley      Mickelson

NV-02     R    74           Gibbons      Cochran

NV-03     R    56      R1   Porter       Gallagher

    New Hampshire 

NH-01     R    58      R2   Bradley      Nadeau

NH-02     R    57      R2   Bass         Hodes

    New Jersey 

NJ-01     D    93           Andrews      Hutchison

NJ-02     R    69           LoBiondo     Robb

NJ-03     R    65      R3   Saxton       Conaway

NJ-04     R    66      R3   Smith        Vasquez

NJ-05     R    60      R3   Garrett      Wolfe

NJ-06     D    67           Pallone      Fernandez

NJ-07     R    58      R2   Ferguson     Brozak

NJ-08     D    67           Pascrell     Ajjan

NJ-09     D    70           Rothman      Trawinski

NJ-10     D    84           Payne        Washington (G)

NJ-11     R    72          Frelinghuysen Buell

NJ-12     D    60      D3   Holt         Spadea

NJ-13     D    78           Menendez     Piatkowski

    New Mexico 

NM-01     R    55      R1   Wilson       Romero

NM-02     R    56      R2   Pearce       King

NM-03     D   100           Udall        Tucker

    New York results: Montana - New York

NY-01     D    50      D1   Bishop       Manger

NY-02     D    58           Israel       Hoffmann

NY-03     R    72           King         Mathies

NY-04     D    56      D2   McCarthy     Garner

NY-05     D    93           Ackerman     Graves

NY-06     D    96           Meeks

NY-07     D    73           Crowley      Cinquemain

NY-08     D    74           Nadler       Hort

NY-09     D    65           Weiner       Cronin

NY-10     D    96           Towns        Clarke

NY-11     D    86           Owens        Lieberman (C/SC)

NY-12     D    95           Velazquez    Rodriguez

NY-13     R    70      R3   Fossella     Barbaro

NY-14     D    75           Maloney      Srdanovic

NY-15     D    87           Rangel       Jefferson

NY-16     D    92           Serrano      Mohamed

NY-17     D    62           Engel        Brennan

NY-18     D    92           Lowey        Hoffman

NY-19     R    70      R3   Kelly        Jalamin

NY-20     R    73      R3   Sweeney      Kelly

NY-21     D    75           McNulty      Redlich

NY-22     D    64           Hinchey      Brenner

NY-23     R   100           McHugh       Johnson

NY-24     R    71           Boehlert     Miller

NY-25     R    72           Walsh        Hawkins (P&J)

NY-26     R    74      R3   Reynolds     Davis

NY-27     R    69      T    # Naples     Higgins

NY-28     D    62           Slaughter    Laba

NY-29     R    73      R3   # Kuhl       Barend

    North Carolina results: North Carolina - Pennsylvania

NC-01     D    SE*          Butterfield  Dority

NC-02     D    65           Etheridge    Creech

NC-03     R    84           Jones        Eaton

NC-04     D    61           Price        Batchelor

NC-05     R    70      R2   # Foxx       Harrell

NC-06     R    90           Coble        Jordan

NC-07     D    71           McIntyre     Plonk

NC-08     R    54      R2   Hayes        Troutman

NC-09     R    72      R3   Myrick       Flynn

NC-10     R    59      R3   # McHenry    Fischer

NC-11     R    56      R2   Taylor       Keever

NC-12     D    65           Watt         Fisher

NC-13     D    55      D2   Miller       Johnson

    North Dakota 

ND-01     D    52           Pomeroy      Sand

    Ohio results: North Carolina - Pennsylvania

OH-01     R    65      R3   Chabot       Harris

OH-02     R    74           Portman      Sanders

OH-03     R    59      R3   Turner       Mitakides

OH-04     R    67      R3   Oxley        Konop

OH-05     R    67      R3   Gilmor       Weirauch

OH-06     D    59           Strickland   Murphy (?)

OH-07     R    68      R3   Hobson       Anastasio

OH-08     R    71           Boehner      Hardenbrook

OH-09     D    74      D3   Kaptur       Kaczala

OH-10     D    74           Kucinich     Herman

OH-11     D    76           Jones

OH-12     R    65           Tiberi       Brown

OH-13     D    69           Brown        Lucas

OH-14     R    72      R3   LaTourette   Cafaro

OH-15     R    67           Pryce        Brown

OH-16     R    67      R3   Regula       Seemann

OH-17     D    51      D3   Ryan         Cusimano

OH-18     R   100           Ney          Thomas

    Oklahoma 

OK-01     R    56           Sullivan     Dodd

OK-02     D    76      D2   # Boren      Smalley

OK-03     R    76           Lucas        Wilson (Ind)

OK-04     R    54           Cole         Bradshaw (Ind)

OK-05     R    62           Istook       Smith

    Oregon results: North Carolina - Pennsylvania

OR-01     D    62      D2   Wu           Ameri

OR-02     R    72      R3   Walden       McColgan

OR-03     D    67      D3   Blumenauer   Mars

OR-04     D    64           DeFazio      Feldkamp

OR-05     D    55      D2   Hooley       Zupancic

    Pennsylvania results: North Carolina - Pennsylvania

PA-01     D    86           Brady        Williams

PA-02     D    88           Fattah       Bolno

PA-03     R    78           English      Porter

PA-04     R    65           Hart         Drobac

PA-05     R    87           Peterson     Martin (L)

PA-06     R    51      R1   Gerlach      Murphy

PA-07     R    63           Weldon       Scoles

PA-08     R    63      T   # Fitzpatrick Schrader

PA-09     R    70           Shuster      Politis

PA-10     R    93           Sherwood     Hannevig (C)

PA-11     D    56           Kanjorski    Brenneman (C)

PA-12     D    74           Murtha

PA-13     D    51      D1   # Schwartz   Brown

PA-14     D   100         Doyle

PA-15     R    57      R1   # Dent       Driscoll

PA-16     R    88      R3   Pitts        Herr

PA-17     D    51      D1   Holden       Paterno

PA-18     R    60      R3   Murphy       Boles

PA-19     R    91           Platts       Sheeder (G)

    Rhode Island results: Rhode Island - Utah

RI-01     D    60           Kennedy      Rogers

RI-02     D    76           Langevin     Barton

    South Carolina 

SC-01     R    90           Brown        Dunn (G)

SC-02     R    84           Wilson       Ellisor

SC-03     R    67           Barrett

SC-04     R    69           Inglis       Brown

SC-05     D    86           Spratt       Spencer

SC-06     D    67           Clyburn      McLeod (C)

    South Dakota 

SD-01     D    SE*     D1   Herseth      Diedrich

    Tennessee results: Rhode Island - Utah

TN-01     R   100           Jenkins      Leonard

TN-02     R    79           Duncan       Greene

TN-03     R    65           Wamp         Wolfe

TN-04     D    52      D2   Davis        Bowling

TN-05     D    64           Cooper       Knapp

TN-06     D    66           Gordon       Demas

TN-07     R    71           Blackburn

TN-08     D    70           Tanner       Hart

TN-09     D    84           Ford         Fort

    Texas results: Rhode Island - Utah

TX-01     D    56      T    Sandlin      Gohmert

TX-02     D    61      T    Lampson      Poe

TX-03     R    74           Johnson      Vessels (L)

TX-04     R    58      R3   # Hall       Nickerson

TX-05     R    58           Hensarling   Bernstein

TX-06     R    71      R3   Barton       Meyer

TX-07     R    89           Culberson    Martinez

TX-08     R    93           Brady        Wright

TX-09     D    59      D3   # Green      Molina

TX-10     D    84      R3   # Sadun (wi) McCaul

TX-11     D    52      R4   # Raasch     Conaway

TX-12     R    92      R3   Granger      Alvarado

TX-13     R    69           Thornberry   Smith (L)

TX-14     R    68           Paul

TX-15     D   100           Hinojosa     Thamm

TX-16     D   100           Reyes        Brigham

TX-17     D    51      D1   Edwards      Wohlgemuth

TX-18     D    77           Lee          Sullivan (L)

TX-19     R    92      T    Neugebauer*  Stenholm*

TX-20     D   100           Gonzalez     Scott

TX-21     R    73           Smith        Smith

TX-22     R    63      R3   DeLay        Morrison

TX-23     R    51           Bonilla      Sullivan

TX-24     D    65      R4   # Page       Marchant

TX-25     D    55      D3   Doggett      Klein

TX-26     R    75           Burgess      Reyes

TX-27     D    61           Ortiz        Vaden

TX-28     D    71      D3   # Cuellar    Hopson

TX-29     D    95           Green        Messina (L)

TX-30     D    74           Johnson      Davis (L)

TX-31     R    69           Carter       Porter

TX-32     R    68      T    Sessions*    Frost*

    Utah results: Rhode Island - Utah

UT-01     R    61           Bishop       Thompson

UT-02     D    50      D1   Matheson     Swallow

UT-03     R    67           Cannon       Babka

    Vermont results: Vermont - Wyoming

VT-01    Ind   65          Sanders (Ind) Drown (D)

    Virginia results: Vermont - Wyoming

VA-01     R    96           Davis        Lee (Ind)

VA-02     R    83      R2   # Drake      Ashe

VA-03     D    96      D3   Scott        Sears

VA-04     R    98      R3   Forbes       Menefee

VA-05     R    63      R3   Goode        Weed

VA-06     R    97           Goodlatte

VA-07     R    69           Cantor       Blanton (G)

VA-08     D    60      D2   Moran        Cheney

VA-09     D    66      D2   Boucher      Triplett

VA-10     R    72      R3   Wolf         Socas

VA-11     R    83      R3   Davis        Longmyer

    Washington results: Vermont - Wyoming

WA-01     D    55      D3   Inslee       Eastwood

WA-02     D    51      D2   Larson       Sinclair

WA-03     D    63      D3   Baird        Crowson

WA-04     R    66      R3   Hastings     Matheson

WA-05     R    62      R1   # McMorris   Barbieri

WA-06     D    64      D3   Dicks        Cloud

WA-07     D    75           McDermott    Cassady

WA-08     R    60      T    # Reichert   Ross

WA-09     D    58      D3   Smith        Lord

    West Virginia results: Vermont - Wyoming

WV-01     D   100           Mollohan     Parks

WV-02     R    60      R3   Capito       Wells

WV-03     D    70           Rahall       Snuffer

    Wisconsin results: Vermont - Wyoming

WI-01     R    67           Ryan         Thomas

WI-02     D    66      D3   Baldwin      Magnum

WI-03     D    63           Kind         Schultz

WI-04     D    76      D3   # Moore      Boyle

WI-05     R    86      R3  Sensenbrenner Kennedy

WI-06     R   100           Petri        Hall

WI-07     D    64      D3   Obey         Miles (G)

WI-08     R    73           Green        LeClair

    Wyoming results: Vermont - Wyoming

WY-01     R    61      R3   Cubin        Ladd

* SE = Current Congressperson chosen in Special Election since 2002

Reasonable Right

In the early days of 2004, I believed that Bush's Achilles heel would be an oncoming wave of defections of prominent conservatives and Republicans whose consciences would demand that they put country ahead of party and publicly endorse the Democrat this time around. I continue to argue that a Kerry win would benefit the Republican Party long term, by strengthening the voices of reason and moderation within it. I clearly underestimated the power of loyalty and personal investment in the party that moderates feel, as the anticipated wave has been a trickle of mostly retired Republicans or non-office-holders. Even groups like Mainstream 2004, a collection of Republican ex-governors and ex-senators decrying extremism and calling for moderation within the Republican policy, come short of simply endorsing the opposition, though Linwood Holton, former Republican governor of Virginia and member of the group has suggested that he could not vote for Bush under the current circumstances.

Now that's not to say that there aren't a lot of long time Republicans who will defect this year. I think that especially in the over 60 crowd there are many who remember the days of Eisenhower, and are ready to say that enough is enough. But for anyone officially within the party, there seems to be a formidable taboo against officially endorsing a formal opponent. Hagel, Snowe, Collins, and sometimes McCain may equivocate about particular administration policies or stances, but you won't be hearing a cross-party endorsement. Even lonely liberal Republican, Lincoln Chafee won't come out and say he's voting for Kerry, though to do otherwise would be inconsistent with his voting record in the Senate.

Conservative columnists certainly feel freer to express doubt and dissent at aspects of the policies of Republicans. But even so, there is surprising reluctance to give outright endorsements of the other guys in deference to the country ahead of party concept. I'm always looking for exceptions to this, and will be pleased to have more pointed out to me.

John Eisenhower, son of the former President, wrote an eloquent editorial endorsement of John Kerry, in which he says "we voters will have to make cool judgments, unencumbered by habits of the past." He even goes on to express enthusiasm about his decision to pull the lever for Kerry, which is just about unprecedented for a prominent Republican.

Among the regular citizenry, of course, there's no such taboo. I found:
republicansforkerry.org
republicansforkerry04.org
republicansforhumility.com
republicansagainstbush.info
publicchristian.com
anotherrepublicanforkerry.com
in a quick web search.

I do hope some exit polls ask voters to identify who they voted for, if they voted, in 2000, as it will be interesting to see the number of switches. I agree with what I've read that the number of switches in both directions is likely to be unprecedented this year, as 9/11 and its aftermath, as well as the Bush response to it and the launching of two wars, had profound but uneven effects on almost all Americans.

Electoral Reform

Campaign Finance Reform has gotten a lot of well-deserved attention in the last several years, and though cynics will tell you that corruption can't be stopped, I contend that McCain-Feingold is at least a step in the right direction. Sure people and money will find ways around any strictures, but that doesn't mean we should encourage corruption.

There are other types of reform though that have gotten much less attention, in spite of the fact that they could have widespread support. Two Democratic Congressmen, Brian Baird of Washington and Gene Green of Texas, have teamed up this week to introduce a Constitutional Amendment that would do away with the Electoral College and install our Presidents by direct popular vote. Now it's a shame that we need to amend the Constitution to implement a common sense procedure, but that is the most certain way to effect such a change, and really it should be popular. Thomas Jefferson was an outspoken opponent of the Electoral College from its inception. Many of the early arguments in its favor have been obviated by today's technology, so getting rid of it should be a slam dunk, but both parties have vested interests in the system, so it's an uphill battle in spite of clear popular appeal. No less than 700 previous attempts have been made to eliminate or modify it so far, to no avail. If this year's election brings us a mismatch between the popular vote winner and the Electoral College winner for the second time in as many elections, however, maybe the will to do away with it will finally be overwhelming.

Other forms of Electoral reform well worth adopting are Instant Runoff Voting, which would empower the electorate to support third party and independent candidates without "wasting" their vote, and a depoliticization of the drawing of Congressional District boundaries. That one is much tougher, but the intensely partisan and divisive House of Representatives of the current day owes its fangs to the abominable creation of safe districts. There's a reason that the Senate is consistently the more moderate body, but that's a discussion for another day.

The Fight for Congress

Most pundits say there is little chance of the Democrats wresting control of the House of Representatives from the GOP this election year. The latest congressional redistricting in most states further solidified the creation of safe districts for incumbents such that very few districts are expected to be in play in any given election year. With the Republicans currently enjoying a 228-206 advantage, few have dared to suggest that the Democrats have more than a long shot chance to become the majority party. The unprecedented mid-decade redistricting in Texas alone is seen as likely to result in a pickup of 4 or 5 seats for the GOP, further widening the gap that the Demos would have to narrow. Here is one Republican's assessment of which races should be competitive in the House. More attention has been given to the Senate where the margin is much narrower, and more Demos are daring to hope for majority status.

The conventional wisdom may well turn out to be true, but here is my contrarian speculation that the House is actually likelier to change hands than the Senate. I will grant that this is partly wishful thinking on my part, as a majority switch in the House stands to create more political thunder than a switch in the Senate where greater moderation on both sides of the aisle tends to dampen the influence of the majority, especially when it's a slim one. Some may argue that the Senate is more important due to its role in confirming appointments, but it's the House where continuous control by Republicans since 1995 has resulted in partisan entrenchment and the establishment of rules creating institutional barriers to change rivaling those which the Democrats had built up after forty years of control of that body prior to the Republican Revolution of 1994. Frankly our nation would be well served by at least one switch in party control per decade to avoid that type of petty partisanship.

My inclination to believe a Democratic surprise may be in the works stems from the tide of unabashedly liberal activism, and the rising concerns of libertarians and fiscal conservatives, both of which have sprung up in reaction to the Bush administration's four-headed approach to governing by warmongering, rights abatement, deficit spending, and cultural divisiveness. This isn't to suggest that I don't believe the polls that show a closely split and increasingly polarized electorate, nor that I believe the Republican base isn't also going to vote in record numbers. But among the many constituencies which are NOT in either party's base, I suggest that those who are inclined to oppose Bush will be voting at a substantially higher rate than those inclined to support him. This is why the polls may be "lying".

While events could yet conspire for things not to turn out that way, this potential differential in who shows up in November could translate into both an unexpected landslide for Kerry, and longer coattails than have been seen in years. The reason I think the coattails might be more noticeable in the House than the Senate is largely regional. Only one-third of all Senate seats are up for a vote, and many of the closer races are for southern seats currently occupied by Democrats. The stronger cultural conservatism in the South is likely to mitigate my suggested turnout differential there, and the loss of just two or three of those Senate seats is likely to be insurmountable. In contrast, as always, every seat in the House is up for re-election, and a motivated large anti-Bush turnout could produce more surprises in House races previously not believed to be in play.

As a partisan myself, I am especially anxious to see the Democratic Leadership put more resources than they might otherwise be inclined to into House races which have historically gone Republican with percentages in the high 50s and even low 60s, especially outside of the South. One strategic arm of the Democratic establishment, the National Committee for an Effective Congress (NCEC) seemed to share my take on the unique opportunity of 2004 back in their September 2003 Board Memo:

As President Bush’s ratings continue to slip, and the Republicans continue to be wrong on the issues that matter most to people, Democratic races for the US House and Senate have become even more competitive. Principally because of 2002 redistricting there are a smaller number of competitive US House races. While it will be a truly difficult challenge to overcome a 22-seat GOP advantage in the House, a weakened Bush and discredited GOP has the potential of putting many more House seats “in play” in 2004. It is possible that by this time next year there will be significantly more competitive House races and the Democrat’s prospects of recapturing control of Congress will be much brighter.

But in their more recent winter newsletter, they backed substantially away from such optimism, only barely mentioning that:

In addition there is a strong chance Democrats will be able to pick up a couple of seats in the House of Representatives.

In contrast, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, more of a fund-raising organization dedicated to winning seats in Congress, at least officially, seems to remain more hopeful. Personally I wish that Tom DeLay could become the sort of political lightning rod for the left, that Ted Kennedy and Hillary have become for the right. "Demote DeLay" could become the generic "vote for your local Democrat for Congress" yard sign. Alas it would be lost on the average voter outside of DeLay's own district, who's not inclined to think of their vote as having anything to do with majority control of Congress.

Control of the House by the Democrats, should my November surprise actually occur, is likely to be short-lived however. If accompanied by a Kerry Presidency, the motivated electorate I'm hypothesizing to show up to turn out Bush will fall back to their usual habits in two years, and the redistricting to favor the party currently in power will not have changed, meaning the GOP would retake most of the seats they lose this time around. Even so, an interruption to a Republican majority, should be celebrated by moderates everywhere, as it should substantially quell the activist right-wing freight train being led by Hastert and DeLay.

As far as my personal druthers are concerned, I actually am hoping for my prediction not only in the House but in the Senate as well, since I see the advantage of some of the moderate Republican leadership in that body tempering possible excesses of what would otherwise be one-party control across the board. This in spite of the fact that I test to the left of Kucinich in this on-line measurement of one's political compass, though I remain very skeptical of that result.