It's Wisconsin!

As the election nears, both campaigns are narrowing their focus on their most realistic chances of winning the Presidency.

Bush's people realize that Ohio, though it appears tied, is a state that they just can't count on. Kerry's campaign realizes the same thing about Florida.

What that means for Bush is that Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin have become the must win states, that could carry the election for him if there isn't a global shift, and he loses Ohio.

Similarly for Kerry, Ohio and Wisconsin have become the must win states, that could carry the election for him if there isn't a global shift, and he loses Florida.

Wisconsin is on both lists. I've looked at the Congressional races in Wisconsin, and there's not one with a serious challenge to the incumbent party. Nonetheless, I added Bryan Kennedy, longshot Democratic challenger in Milwaukee's northern suburbs, to my ActBlue list of Democratic candidates for whom I'm fundraising. Iowa is important too, because Kerry could still win by taking Ohio and Iowa without Wisconsin, but my bet is that Iowa and Wisconsin will go to the same candidate, and that candidate will be our next President. Slate has a great site for tracking all this.