Monday, 1 November 2004


If you've been directed here by a web search for a particular Congressional race, this is where you (may) want to go.

[Update: If you want to see how wrong I was click here.]

Prognostication is not why I'm here, but it is fun to guess.

Mine is the 10-5 prediction.
10% is the increase in raw votes for W over what he received in 2000.
5% (or more) is how much Kerry will win by in the popular vote.

How does that happen? Huge turnout.

I don't think the electoral college will be that close. I really expect Kerry to take FL, PA, OH, WI, IA, NH, MN, & NM, plus perhaps a surprise or three.

I've already been pushing the idea that Republican control of the House is in jeopardy, and I'm sticking with that, though truth be told it would be more likely to see a pickup of 9 seats by the Dems, leaving them 6 seats short of the majority. Instead I'll be rash and predict a 4 seat majority for the Democrats when the smoke clears.

In the Senate, where the South is likely to produce Democratic losses, I'm predicting an effective tie - 50 R, 49 D, & Jeffords. If the South Carolina "NAACP" shenanigans backfires though, an Inez victory should give the Dems majority control.

And finally, I think we will know by midnight on election day who the President will be.

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